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The Lonely Capitalist

Hedge Fund Letter Consensus
Q4 2016

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The goal of this newsletter is simple: collect as many hedge fund letters to investors as I can get my hands on and find consensus topics of discussion.

A total of 69 letters were used for this report. While still a very small sample size, I hope to acquire a much larger number of letters for future issues.

Letters are first annotated and undergo natural language processing (NLP) to identity named entities and coreferences (among other tasks) and are then pumped into a text search engine to find consensus topics among all funds. This same text search engine is available to readers to use for possibly finding additional topics of interest. Part of the annotation includes identifying new buys/sells, and existing holdings, fund performance, cash allocation, and key opinions.

Why Hedge Fund Letters?

Hedge funds with over $100 million in investable assets in the U.S. are required to filing quarterly 13F holdings reports to the SEC. These filings provide great insight and should be a part of everyone's research. You can use to get detailed analysis of 13F holdings and find consensus picks.

13F Limitations: 13F filings have some limitations however. For starters 13F filings aren’t due until 45-days after the quarter close date. Letters to investors are typically more timely than this. 13F filings are limited to long positions in US equities, call/put options/convertible notes and ADRs. So no disclosure of cash positions, international holdings, shorts, real estate, distressed debt, etc. You are missing the complete picture of a fund’s true investment exposure.

Hedge Fund letters don’t necessarily include all investments either, but oftentimes big stakes are disclosed in the letter along with the fund's rationale for choosing them. Hedge Fund Letters also include opinions from the manager on the overall direction of the market and on new investments.

These are the best investors in the world. Reading their letters gives us a glimpse into their thinking and methodology. We can leverage hedge funds' vast resources and knowledge without the associated cost.

But mostly, we have no idea what he [Donald Trump] is going to do or Tweet about next. -- Hazelton Capital Partners
Protectionism and trade wars typically lead to less global GDP, as main contributors to GDP growth by and large were EM in recent years, after all, despite weak commodities -- Fasanara Capital
If the President-elect's tax plan is enacted we'll very likely see Apple repatriate a substantial amount of its offshore cash -- Open Square Capital
Trump could have said anything, anything at all, in trump victory speech and the stock market was going to rise because the rotation out of bonds had to go somewhere in the performance-chasing Season of Goodwill. -- Carlson Capital
Note that the credit markets had quite the opposite reaction to Trump's victory as the equity markets -- Bronte Capital
To the extent that president-elect donald trump [ Trump ] can implement these policies, the economy should accelerate, and given that we are starting with less than 5 % unemployment, a labor shortage could develop -- Greenlight Capital

Trump and Putin could begin a new nuclear arms race.

US defense spending will likely increase under Trump and a Republican Congress.

While it is unclear yet exactly how Trump will impact utilities, deregulation historically has hurt the industry. -- Crecat Capital

We now think that the intensifying regulatory changes in financial services, particularly in the U.S., could abate under a Trump administration. -- KKR
if i had known in advance that Mr. Trump would win, i would not have expected either the market or the stocks in we portfolio to move as they did. -- JAB Partners
we believe a modest portion of the post-election rally could be justified by potentially lower corporate tax rates and more business-friendly regulations (particularly in specific sectors like financials), but there are also significantly elevated macro risks related to the incoming administration that offset these -- Askeladden Capital


All things Trump. Most funds profited from the post-election rally and most funds tend to agree that corporate tax rates will come down under a Trump administration.


A continuing topic of concern is the move out of actively managed funds and into index funds.

We know that the flow of assets out of active management must eventually cease.

the top 5 indexers alone equal 33 % of the S&P 500 float

Viewed through this window, it is clear why a few observers believe that the present direction of investing is unsustainable and that there is a supply/demand issue even with an index as large as the S&P 500.

Below the high liquidity threshold required by indexation -- the ETF Divide -- there is a very large universe of less liquid securities that are simply not fit, on a practical basis, for index inclusion. -- Horizon Kinetics

we believe however, when broad indexes sell at or near record high valuation levels, you do not want your portfolio to closely resemble the index

In the near-term, we suspect that money-flows from active to passive have been driving recent index returns and that such flows may be topping out.

Historically, owning indexes at current valuation levels is correlated to poor forward ten-year returns. -- Goodhaven Fund

The shift to indexing had been a headwind for the Funds for several years because the shift to indexing drove stocks to move in lockstep and favored momentum investing, as indexing is a strategy that buys more of what has been going up. -- Longleaf

In 2015, there were 1,594 ETFs, from just 204 in 2005, all the while as the number of listed stocks declined

Diversification is also debatable for more than just a minority of ETFs, making it a marketing spin more than a reliable feature -- Fasanara Capital

While it is a good idea to efficiently go long America, ETFs occasionally swing to illogical extremes when popularity leads to overpriced and overweighted constituents

When bubbles burst, it may take a decade or longer to recover what may be lost in a few months -- Fairholme

Passive indices have outperformed most active managers for eight years now in what to us looks like a full economic cycle. -- Crescat

Close to 90 % of equity flows [ from 7 % 15 years ago ] can today be attributed to either passive index funds or ETFs, Risk-Parity funds or Volatility-driven strategies, trendchasing algos.

A market structure dominated by rule-based passive-aggressive machines make such downfall potentially way larger than it could have otherwise been.

Needless to say, parallels can be drawn for moments in history where similar ex-post rationalizations, proclivity to dismiss risks and climb the wall of worry resulted in deep declines [ years 1929, 1937, 1966, 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2007 ] -- Fasanara Capital

We believe however, when broad indexes sell at or near record high valuation levels, you do not want your portfolio to closely resemble the index -- Goodhaven Fund

What we're seeing creep up a little bit are student loans and autos, particularly non-prime auto loans.

we're seeing pretty good things in credit with the exception of auto loans and student loans.

But it does kind of look to us like standards have gotten pretty loose in auto lending and you’re starting to see anecdotal evidence that defaults and delinquencies in auto lending are ramping up, so we are paying some attention to that. -- Muhlenkamp & Co

we are concerned about credit deterioration in certain fixed income markets, including the auto loan market in the U.S.

As such, we are growing increasingly concerned that -- at some point -- credit deterioration in many sectors, auto-related markets in particular, could turn out to be worse than the consensus is now expecting.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, subprime auto originations are running at just under $ 50 billion per quarter on a trailing 12-month basis, which is approaching the record pace of subprime auto-lending we saw during the 2005-2006 period.

Importantly, this robust growth in subprime originations is happening at a time when delinquencies in auto loans are increasing and used car prices [ which proxy for recovery values ] are decreasing -- KKR

Currently, the intense competition in subprime auto-lending is compressing the margins of all lenders -- Blue Tower Asset Mgmt.

Auto Loan Bubble?

Several funds voiced concerns over increasing delinquencies in the auto loan market and parallels to past bubbles.

Market Predictions

Hedge Fund predictions for 2017.

In the immediate term, we believe we will see an acceleration of economic growth at home. - Third Point
On balance, absent damaging trade wars, we think Brexit and Trump have the potential to be positive medium-term developments for real people in the real economy, given the well-overdue reach to people’s discontent and the scope for redistribution of income and more inclusive growth -- Fasanara Capital
Looking forward to 2017, our outlook remains optimistic, underscored by expectations of an acceleration in index earnings growth, stable economic growth among large countries, and the potential for domestic fiscal stimulus. -- Jenson

The Federal Reserve has kept real interest rates well below their theoretical natural rate for eight years, giving us confidence to believe in a rising inflationary environment going forward

Despite eight straight years of easy money, we remain only in the early innings of a rising inflation cycle -- Crescat

we expect inflation to rise quite sharply perhaps as high as five percent over the next year. -- Carlson Capital Black Diamond Thematic
As the world continues to trend towards our outlook and forecast, our expectation for a surging USD will absolutely create inflation, but not in the United States. -- IceCap Asset Management

The long end of the bond market is now broken and the 30 year bull market in long duration, fixed income is over, kaput, done. If you own any of this stuff, it’s time to make a change.

the surging USD will actually create deflation in the US making TIPS a not so good investment.

Currently, stock market sentiment has reached extreme levels, and we’ll once again patiently await for an opportunity to add further to these strategies. -- IceCap Asset Management

Historically, the start of a Fed rate tightening cycle has not been a drag on equities, and the relative attractiveness of equities over bonds coupled with the unwinding of lowgrowth/low-inflation positions, should be supportive of solid equity market returns -- OC Premium Small Companies Mandate

We take a more incredulous view of these developments and continue to believe that the U.S. economy will only grow in the 1.5% to 2.0% a year range over the next few years with somewhat increased inflation. -- Artko Capital

we have pushed back our recession forecast to 2019 from 2018.

we are raising our 2017 U.S. GDP forecast to 2.25%

with President-elect Trump’s stimulus slated to benefit U.S. GDP in 2018 – we believe that it is prudent to change the outlook for the duration and trajectory of the economic cycle in the U.S. So, we have done that by extending the cycle until 2019 from 2018.

As a result [Trump Policies], we have boosted both our growth and inflation forecasts during the 2017 and 2018 periods.

we maintain our forecast that the Federal Reserve lifts short-term rates “just” two times in 2017 KKR

If the border adjustment mechanism is implemented as proposed we think it will cause a global depression and a major equity market decline.

Eight years after the Great Financial Crisis, the blowback has started which brings us to the impact of Border Adjustability and perhaps the end of the Dollar Standard.

It is still unclear whether the border adjustment mechanism will happen but at the very least we expect that US trade policy will put downward pressure on global growth -- Carlson Capital Black Diamond Thematic

There are some proposals gaining traction involving border adjustability. -- JAB Partners
Some aspects of tax reform, namely BAT, have the potential to create some volatility in the earnings for large importers of goods into the US - Third Point

Speaking specifically about the fourth quarter, after Trump was elected, investors likely started discounting lower future corporate tax rates, as well as something called Border Adjustability.

Without going into all the potential possibilities, the result of Border Adjustability is that exporters could benefit by receiving something akin to a rebate for products shipped to other countries.

The skeptic in us believes Border Adjustability will be used to raise money to help pay for Trump's and Congress's widely-touted infrastructure programs.

Nonetheless, the net effect of Border Adjustability may be a stronger dollar should the country export more and import less than the current paradigm. -- FPA Capital Fund

Despite our bullishness on COST and WFM, we are mindful of the potential significant impact of border adjustability, which affects Retailers disproportionately.

we also have several apparel retailer shorts whose earnings will be more adversely affected than COST's and WFM's in a fully border adjustable system. -- Margate Capital

Border Adjustability

Border Adjusted tax (BAT) is a new topic of discussion in light of Trump's presidential victory.

Fannie and Freddie

Fairholme and Pershing Square both remain bullish on Fannie and Freddie

Despite significant share price appreciation in 2016, we believe the shares of a reformed Fannie and Freddie will be worth a multiple of their current price.

we believe the new administration will successfully reform Fannie and Freddie. -- Pershing Square

we have invested in two superb insurance companies [ Fannie and Freddie ] with unparalleled brand recognition, talented human capital, proprietary information technology infrastructure, and robust industry relationships.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are quintessential examples of what Warren Buffett would describe as `` economic castles protected by unbreachable moats.''

As interest rates rise, Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's portfolios become even more valuable -- and we anticipate that Q4 2016 results will reflect this positive impact.

we are optimistic that the indispensability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to affordable homeownership eventually overpowers the taboo imposed upon fannie mae and freddie mac to affordable homeownership by the previous Washington establishment. -- Fairholme

These are two of the best businesses in America [ Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ].

Attractive is an understatement [ Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ].

And this's obvious that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are as solid as any financial enterprise in the world, public or private. Yet, the companies are priced for less than runoff liquidation

Our investment in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was predicated on a simple thesis : There are no substitutes. -- Fairholme Capital

Complete Results


Performance for Quarter

Performance YTD

Cash Allocation



APN Outdoor
Automatic Data Processing
Bank HaPoalim
Bollor SA
Chipotle Mexican Grill
Contura Energy
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)
E.ON (Germany: EOAN)
Eastman Kodak (preferred)
EnviroStar, Inc. (EVI)
Este Lauder
Europcar Groupe
FIBI First International Bank of Israel
Gaia Inc. (GAIA)
Great Canadian Gaming (GC)
Limbach Holdings, Inc. (LMB)
LSC Communications (LKSD)
Marchex (MCHX)
New York REIT (NYRT)
Novo Nordisk
Resolute Energy Corporation (REN)
RMG Networks
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)
State National Companies (SNC)
T.Rowe Price.
TerraForm Global (GLBL)
Tractor Supply Company
Viacom (VIAB)
W.R. Grace
Yum China

Added to

Babcock & Wilcox (BW)
Entravision (EVC)
Full House Resorts
Kraft Heinz
LGI Homes (LGIH)
LSB Industries (LXU)
Nike (NKE)
Quotient Technology (QUOT)
Take Two Interactive TTWO
TreeHouse Foods
USA Technologies USAT
Verisign (VRSN)
Videocon DTH (VDTH)


Admiral Group
Apollo Education (APOL)
Cognizant Technology Solutions
CSW Industrials (CSWI)
Express Scripts
Fogo de Chao (FOGO)
Franklin Covey (FC)
Graham Corp
Hudson Technologies (HDSN)
Liquidity Services (LQDT)
Retail Holdings NV

Sold Out

Advanced Emissions Solutions (ADES
Antero Resources
Atwood Oceanic bonds
Axtel SAB
Bank Leumi
BFC Financial
Bojangles (BOJA
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP).
CSG Group
Diamond Hill Investment Group (DHIL)
Electronic Arts
Energy Assets
First Solar (FSLR),
FMC Corp
Hain Celestial (HAIN)
Headwaters (HW)
HubSpot Inc
long Dell/Short VM Ware
Macys (M)
Mentor Graphics Corporation
Pandora Media Inc
Procter & Gamble
RMR Group (RMR)
SELF [Global Self Storage]
Tailored Brands(TLRD)
Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO)
TriMas (TRS)
Trinity Industries (TRN)
Village Supermarkets
WWE Entertainment(WWE)
Zoetis Inc. (ZTS). (2 separate funds)

Largest Holding

Only a few funds identify their asset allocation % or mention which holding is the largest in their portfolio.

Seritage Growth Properties
Imperial Metals
Federal National Mortgage Association
WPX Energy, Inc.
FairPoint Communications
Aerojet Rocketdyne equity
Level 3 Communications
Western Digital
Berkshire Hathaway
Bank of America


Alaris Royalty Corp
Amazon (AMZN)
Amplify Snack Brands (2 funds)
athenahealth (ATHN)
Atmos Energy (ATO)
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ AU)
Bank Depository short
Black Hills (BKH)
Calpine (CPN)
Caterpillar (CAT)
CMS Energy (CMS)
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)
Computer Programs & Services
Consolidated Edison (ED)
Deutsche X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China (ASHR)
Duke (D)
Edison International (EIX)
Fenix Parts equity
German Bunds
iShares China Large Cap (FXI)
iShares Emerging Markets (EEM)
iShares MSCI China (MCHI)
iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU)
iShares South Korea (EWY)
Italian Government bonds
Japanese Government bonds
Kornit Digital (2 funds)
Lands End
long-duration US Treasuries
Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)
MDC Partners (MDC)
National Bank of Australia (NAB AU)
Nextera (NEE)
Nisource (NI)
offshore yuan futures
Papa Murphy's
Sempra (SRE)
Stella Jones Inc
Tesla (2 funds)
UK Gilts
Utilities Select SPDR (XLU)
Vanguard Emerging Markets (VWO)
Westpac Banking Corp (WBC AU)

Long Holdings

Name# Funds
3M (MMM)1
Aaron's Inc.1
Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)1
Aerojet Rocketdyne1
Africa-Israel Properties1
Agnico Eagle (AEM)1
AIG Warrants1
Ainsworth Gaming Technologies1
Air Products & Chemicals2
Akamai Technologies (AKAM)1
ALJ Regional Holdings1
Alkermes (ALKS)1
Alliance Data Systems1
Alphabet (GOOG)6
Altria (MO)1
AMC Networks1
Amerisource Bergen (ABC)1
Amgen (AMGN)1
Annaly Capital Management1
APN Outdoor1
Apollo Education (APOL)1
Apple Inc (AAPL)6
Applied Materials (AMAT),1
Applus Services1
Associated Capital1
Atwood Oceanics, Inc1
Automatic Data Processing1
AP Mollar-Maersk1
Babcock & Wilcox (BW)1
Bank of America warrant basket1
Bank of America (BAC)2
Bapcor Ltd BAP1
Barrick Gold (ABX)2
Bayer (Germany: BAYN)2
Berkshire Hathaway Class B2
Biogen (BIIB)1
Birchcliff Energy1
Blue Sky Alternative Investments Ltd BLA1
Boeing (BA)1
BOFI Holding (BOFI)1
Bollor SA1
Bruker (BRKR)1
Burford Capital1
Cabot Oil and Gas (COG)1
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)1
Caleres (CAL)1
Canadian Pacific1
Candian Pacific Railway1
Capital One Financial Corp2
Carrols Restaurants (TAST)2
Celgene (CELG)2
CEMEX (bonds)1
Charles Schwab Corp2
Charter Communications, Inc.2
Checkpoint Software (CHKP),1
Chemours (CC)1
Chesapeake Energy Corp2
Cheung Kong Property.2
Chipotle Mexican Grill2
Cia De Minas Buenaventura (BVN)1
Cisco (CSCO)1
CK Hutchison1
CNH Industrial1
Coeur Mining (CDE)1
Cognizant Technologies (CTSH)2
Colgate Palmolive1
CONSOL Energy (CNX)2
Contura Energy1
Cornerstone OnDemand Inc1
Costa Group1
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)1
CR Bard1
Credit Acceptance1
CSW Industrials (CSWI)1
CUI Global (CUI)1
D.R. Horton (DHI)1
Deltic Timber1
Demand Media/Leaf Group (LFGR)1
Detour Gold Corp. (DGC CN)1
DeVry Education Group Inc.1
Diageo (DEO).1
Discover Financial (DFS)1
DISH Network1
Distribution NOW1
Dundee Corp1
E.ON (Germany: EOAN)1
Eagle Materials (EXP)1
Eastman Kodak (preferred)1
Electronic Arts (EA)1
Electronic equipment company1
Emcor (EME)1
Entravision (EVC)2
EnviroStar, Inc. (EVI)1
EQT Corp. (EQT)1
Este Lauder1
Europcar Groupe1
Evercore Partners (EVR)1
Everest Re (RE)2
EW Scripps (SSP)1
Express Scripts1
EZCorp (EZPW)1
F5 Networks (FFIV),1
FairPoint Communications (FRP).1
Fannie Mae (FNMA)4
Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp1
Federated Investors1
Fidelity Nat Financial Ventures1
Flir Systems (FLIR)1
Fogo de Chao (FOGO)1
Fortinet (FTNT)1
Fortress Investment Group (FIG)2
Franco Nevada (FNV)1
Franklin Covey (FC)1
Freddie Mac (FMCC)2
Frontier Communications(FTR)1
Full House Resorts1
Gaia Inc. (GAIA)2
Gaumont SA1
General Motors (GM)1
Genting Berhad (warrants)1
Genting Singapore1
Gilead Sciences1
Globalstar (GSAT)1
GMAC Capital Trust I, Inc1
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc1
Graham Corp1
Graham Holdings (GHC)2
Great Canadian Gaming (GC)1
Great Eagle.1
Gruppo MutuiOnline1
Hecla Mining (HL)1
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co2
Horizon Global1
Hostess Brands $5.75 October 2020 Warrants (TWNKW)1
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Co.1
Hudson Technologies (HDSN)2
Huntington-Ingalls (HII)1
IDEXX Laboratories1
IDW Media1
Imperial Brands1
Imperial Metals Corp1
Imperva Inc1
Imvescor Restaurant Group1
Integrated Device Technologies (IDTI)1
Intelsat Jackson Holdings S.A.1
InterContinental Hotels1
Name # Funds
Intrawest Resorts Holdings (SNOW)1
iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)1
Iteris (ITI)1
Ive Group1
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)2
JP Morgan (JPM)1
Juniper Networks (JNPR)1
K.Wah International.1
Kinross (KGC)1
Korn Ferry (KFY)1
Kraft Heinz1
Lands' End, Inc1
Lannett Co1
Lennar (LEN)1
Leucadia National2
Level 3 Communications1
LGI Homes (LGIH)1
Liberty Broadband1
Liberty Media1
Limbach Holdings, Inc. (LMB)1
Lincoln National (LNC)1
Liquidity Services (LQDT)1
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)1
LKQ Corp1
Lockheed Martin (LMT)1
LSB Industries (LXU)1
LSC Communications (LKSD)1
Madalena Energy (MVN; MDLNF)1
Marathon Petroleum Corporation1
Marchex (MCHX)1
Martinrea International Inc. (MRE-TSX)1
Maxim Power,1
McKesson Corp1
Mead Johnson Nutrition Co1
Media General (MEG),1
Medifast (MED)1
Melco International1
Meredith (MDP)1
Micron Technology (MU)2
Microsoft (MSFT)4
Mineral Resources Limited MIN1
MMA Capital Management1
MRC [MRC Global Inc]1
National Research Corporation1
National-Oilwell Varco1
Natus Medical (BABY).1
Neiman Marcus (bonds)1
Netapp (NTAP)1
New York REIT (NYRT)1
Newmont Mining (NEM),1
Nexstar (NXST)1
Nicholas Financial1
Nike (NKE)1
Nomad Foods Limited2
Northrop Grumman (NOC)1
Novo Nordisk2
NOW Inc. (DNOW)1
Nvidia (NVDA)1
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)1
OAK [Oaktree Capital Group]1
ODFL [Old Dominion Freight Line]1
ON SemiConductor1
Palo Alto Networks (PANW)1
Pan American Silver (PAAS)1
PattersonUTI Energy (PTEN)2
Phu Nhuan Jewelry1
Pioneer Credit1
Platform Specialty Products Corporation (PAH)2
PNC Financial (PNC)1
Primerica (PRI)1
Pure Circle1
Qualcomm (QCOM)1
Quotient Technology (QUOT)1
Ralph Lauren1
Range Resources (RRC)1
Raytheon (RTN)1
RDM Corp1
Resolute Energy Corporation (REN)1
Resona Holdings (Japan: 8308)1
Restaurant Brands2
Retail Holdings NV1
Revlon (REV)1
RMG Networks1
RMR Group1
Rolls Royce.1
Sanofi (France)1
Scottish Pacific1
Scripps Networks1
Sears Holdings Corp2
SELF [Global Self Storage]1
Seritage Growth Properties1
Silver Standard (SSRI)1
Sinclair Broadcasting (SGBI)1
SM Energy(SM)2
Sparton (SPA)1
SPDR Gold Trust1
Spectrum Brands1
Spirit Reality Capital1
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)1
StarTek (SRT)1
State National Companies (SNC)1
Stolt-Nielsen Ltd1
Synchrony Financial (SYF)1
T.Rowe Price.2
Tahoe Resources (TAHO)1
Take Two Interactive TTWO1
Tegna (TGNA)1
TerraForm Global (NASDAQ: GLBL)1
TerraForm Power1
Texas Pacific Land Trust1
TGS Nopec1
The a2 Milk Company1
The Howard Hughes Corporation (HHC)3
The St. Joe Co1
Time Warner (TWX)2
Tractor Supply Company1
Travelers (TRV)1
TreeHouse Foods1
Triangle Petroleum (bonds)1
Tribune Media (TRCO)2
Twitter (TWTR)1
Unilever (UL)1
United Technologies1
UnitedHealth Group (UNH)1
United Rentals(URI)2
USA Technologies USAT2
Valeant Pharmaceuticals2
Vard Holdings1
Veeco Instruments Inc.1
Verisign (VRSN)1
Viacom (VIAB)1
Visa Inc2
Vocus Communications1
Vodafone (VOD)1
Voya Financial (VOYA)1
W.R. Grace1
Walt Disney (DIS)2
Walter Investment Management1
Webjet Limited WEB1
Wells Fargo & Co1
Western Digital (WDC)2
WesternOne Inc.1
Westpac Bank (WBK)1
White Mountains Insurance2
Whole Foods (WFM)1
WPX Energy1
Wynn Resorts1
Xilinx (XLNX)2
Yahoo / Alibaba1
Yum China1

Famous Quotes

Hedge fund managers often include famous and inspirational quotes in their letters.

Below are ones included in 4th quarter letters.

"He who does not own shares when they decline does not own them when they go up either." (André Kostolany)
"It has been said that man is a rational animal. All my life I have been searching for evidence which could support this." Bertrand Russell
"You better cut the pizza in four pieces because I'm not hungry enough to eat six." ~Yogi Berra
American Economist Herbert Stein is famous for formulating the ‘Stein’s law’: if something cannot go on forever, it will eventually stop
As Ben Graham once said, markets exist to serve you, not to educate you
As Mark Twain said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for certain that just ain’t true.”
As the French journalist JeanBaptiste Alphonse Karr might say about the equity market, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
As writer Samuel Clemens (also known as Mark Twain) once was reputed to have said, "History does not repeat, but it does rhyme."
Edward R. Murrow, a TV news anchor, was one of America’s most respected men, and I often make reference to the time he said, “Anyone who isn’t confused doesn’t really understand the situation.”
Forecasts create the mirage that the future is knowable. – Peter Bernstein
Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the future. – Warren Buffett
Henry Ford famously said: If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.
I can’t change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination JIMMY DEAN AMERICAN COUNTRY MUSIC SINGER, TELEVISION HOST, ACTOR, AND BUSINESSMAN
I never think of the future – it comes soon enough. – Albert Einstein
Investor Sir John Templeton said, "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria."
Jack Bogle replies, “I glance at anything favorable… I pore over anything unfavorable. You don’t need people to tell you you’re right all the time. You need people to tell you that you’re wrong.”
Many shall be restored that now are fallen, and many shall fall that now are in honor. Horace, Ars Poetica
No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all of your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future. - Ian Wilson (former GE executive)
Vladimir Lenin is quoted as saying that there are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen.
Warren Buffett once said: “Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.”
We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know – and those who don’t know they don’t know. – John Kenneth Galbraith
“ What the New Year brings to you will depend a great deal on what you bring to the New Year. ” Vern McLellan
"Have I played the part well? Then applaud as I exit" Augustus AD 14
"In Donald Trump, Americans have finally found a man too stupid even for them." David Millward, Daily Telegraph
“Learning never exhausts the mind.” — Leonardo da Vinci
“Prosperity knits a man to the World. He feels that he is ‘finding a place in it’, while really it is finding its place in him.” - The Screwtape Letters, C. S. Lewis
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance. It is the illusion of knowledge.” — Stephen Hawking
“We don’t get paid for activity, just for being right.” ~Warren Buffett, 1998 Berkshire Hathaway meeting
“We will continue to ignore political and economic forecasts, which are an expensive distraction for many investors and businessmen.” ~Warren Buffett, 1994 letter to Berkshire shareholders